The Future At 3B, Part 3/4: Chase Headley

This is the third part of a series in which The Machine will examine hypothetical trade scenarios for the Giants to acquire a young 3B. Last Friday we looked at Brandon Wood. In part 2, we suggested Ian Stewart, and in this, part 3, we'll look a Chase Jordan Headley of the San Diego Padres (this one is my favorite):

Chase Jordan Headley, SD – Headley comes in at #32 on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects 2008 list, 1 spot ahead of the Giants' own Angel Villalona. Headley absolutely tore up AA Texas League last year, hitting .330/.437/.580, en route to winning the Texas League MVP, then belting 2 dingers in the AA World Series to lead his San Antonio Missions to the crown. The switch-hitter's stats largely speak for themselves but the soon to be 24 year old has some heavyweights touting his skills as well. In his 2008 handbook, Bill James projects Headley to hit .265, with 18 HR, 81 RBI, and walk a robust 77 times in just 467 AB's. To be fair, Dan Zymbrowski at Hardball Times is a little less kind to Headley, projecting a .262/.353/.410 line, with just 12 HR, but all in all, keeping in mind that Headley has just 18 Big League AB's, the statisticians look favorably on him.

On the scouting side, the outlook is even more rosy. Headley has what baseball people call an "advanced plate approach", meaning he's disciplined (150 BB over the last 2 seasons as evidence to the fact), which suggests fewer growing pains in his still nascent career. After putting on nearly 30 lbs. of muscle since being drafted (he currently stands 6'2", 220) Headley's been praised for his "drive", his "character", and his general "make-up". Baseball clichés like this are mostly meaningless, but it can be safely inferred that Headley is not the head-case or primadonna type, at least neutral qualities, if nothing more. Both camps note Headley's lack of foot-speed as the only real weakness in his game.

Why this makes sense for the Padres:
Similar to Ian Stewart's situation in Colorado, Headley is currently blocked at 3B by Kevin Kouzmanoff, a ROY contender last season. Though Kouz has yet to reach the level of the NL's elite class of young 3Bman (D. Wright, Ryan Braun, G. Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman, all come to mind), and probably will never quite be on those players' level, he has the skill set to be a very good MLB hitter nonetheless. A block of .300, 20 HR, 100 RBI seasons is well within Kouz's potential. So, where does that leave the slow-footed Headley? Some believe that Headley will spend the early part of this season learning LF in AAA Portland before being called up to take that position full-time near the midway point. Others believe that it will be Kouzmanoff that takes to the outfield grass, but it's hard to believe that a mid-season position switch will be something the Padres want to pursue in the midst of a pennant race. No matter what happens, the situation with Headley and Kouz is less than ideal (though one of those "good problems to have" kind of things). Headley or Kouz is expendable.

What the Padres need:
The Padres will be a contender in '08, but the stacked NL West will make a playoff run a difficult task. Weaknesses that in other years might be masked with savvy roster moves, will have to be addressed with more staunch solutions this season. An outfield trio of Brian Giles, Jim Edmonds (possibly on the DL to start the season), and Scott Hairston is the weakest in the division. No wonder the Padres are so desperate to convert Headley into an outfielder.

The Friars pitching staff has been their biggest asset over the past few seasons and will be strong again this year, but their rotation is exceedingly thin at the back. Jake Peavy and Chris Young are as good a 1-2 punch as any, and Maddux again will outpitch Barry Zito at 1/3 of the cost, but Randy Wolf, Mark Prior (n/a until April), and Justin Germano raise a lot of questions. Add to it Chris Young's injury history and that Maddux, at 41, can probably only be counted on for about 25 starts. This all means that the Padres will likely be scrambling for innings this season.

What the Giants can offer:
A Headley trade would be an ideal scenario to unload some veteran OF's. Randy Winn can play any of the 3 spots and would be an offensive improvement over Giles, Hairston, and Edmonds. Dave Roberts has been a Padre before, he has a house and a family in San Diego, and though struggled some in PETCO's spacious CF, he would be a much needed addition to this otherwise station to station lineup. A Roberts/Hairston platoon in LF would be a sensible scenario for the Padres, with Roberts manning CF for whatever time Edmonds is out.

As for pitching, again, Sanchez or Correia makes the most sense. Probably Correia would be favored by the Pads since they would find little comfort in the unproven Sanchez. Also, Correia's ability to move in and out of the pen, and his PETCO friendly pitching habits, are probably attractive qualities to Kevin Towers and the Padres front office.

All that being said, the Padres have been very stingy with Headley, rejecting multiple offers last winter, including a package from the Red Sox that featured Coco Crisp. How much does Randy Winn and/or Dave Roberts mean to the Padres chances of a pennant in '08, and is a Correia/Winn for Headley deal too much for the Giants to give up? For the record, I would pull the trigger on that trade in a heartbeat.

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