The Future At 3B, Part 2/4: Ian Stewart

This is the second part of a series in which The Machine will examine hypothetical trade scenarios for the Giants to acquire a young 3B. On Friday we looked at Brandon Wood. In part 2, we'll look at Ian Kenneth Stewart of the Colorado Rockies:

Ian Stewart, COL – The 22 year old is a natural 3Bman who shined last year at AAA Colorado Springs hitting .304/.379/.478 with 15 HR and 10 SB in just 414 AB's. Drafted straight out of La Quinta High School alongside teammate Ian Kennedy, Stewart has progressed nicely through the minor-leagues and seems poised to be an everyday Big League 3Bman right now.

Stewart is noted for his above average glove work at 3rd and is not considered a defensive liability by any measure. Despite his unextraordinary HR totals (just 25 over the last 2 seasons at AA and AAA) he hits plenty of doubles and at 6'3", 205lbs. Stewart has the size to turn into a middle-of-the-order hitter.

Caveats:
Since a breakout year at A-Asheville in '04, Stewart's numbers have dipped some and poor hitting outside of Colorado Springs last year (an unimpressive .251/.323/.377 road line) have led some to believe that, like Brandon Wood, Stewart's potential has been inflated based on a single season of superlative hitting and that his overall body of work tells a somewhat more modest story. The numbers outside of Colorado are particularly worrisome to any sea-level team looking to acquire the youngster. But Stewart proponents might point to steady K/BB rates, solid line drive percentages, and a healthy .850+ OPS to mitigate these concerns.

Why this makes sense for the Rockies:
Current Colorado 3Bman Garrett Atkins has hit at least 20 HR's and knocked in no less than 100 RBI in his first 3 full seasons as a Rocky. Barring an Atkins trade (more on this in a minute) Stewart's only chance to play in Denver this year is if he can successfully turn himself into a defensively capable 2Bman. Stewart has reportedly played a lot of innings at 2B this spring, but fellow rookie Jayson Nix is still the clear favorite to be penciled at 2nd on opening day. Also ahead of Stewart on the depth chart is Jeff Baker as a backup for Atkins, and Omar Quintanilla in the middle-infield. Stewart, also like Brandon Wood, looks like the odd man out.

Note on Garrett Atkins: The Rockies avoided arbitration with Atkins by offering him $4.4mil for '08. Atkins will be arbitration eligible again in '09 and '10. Both sides probably want to avoid going through the arbitration rigmarole 2 more times, but according to MLBtr the Rockies have been unwilling to talk about anything long-term. All of this might mean nothing, but it could be that the Rockies are hoping Stewart progresses enough to appropriate 3B by year's end, giving the organization a top-drawer trade piece in Atkins. The extent to which Atkins would make sense for the Giants depends entirely upon how long this ostensible rebuilding project expects to take and what kind of deal the Giants and Atkins could agree to. Something like a 3-4 year deal at $8.0mil per (starting in 09') with a club option year sounds about right.

What the Giants can offer:
It's unlikely that the Rockies would be interested in Ray Durham unless the Giants eat most of the $7.5mil he's owed for this season (Durham will be a free agent next winter). However, given Durham's strong spring, and that 2B is the Rockies' most glaring deficiency, the Rockies' interest in Durham is not beyond rational speculation. Certainly, unloading Durham would be nice for the Giants because Ray Durham is an idiot, and also for the added benefit of opening up 2B for Eugenio Velez.

More likely though, the Rockies will ask for some combination of pitching in return for Stewart. The Rockies rotation only goes about 3.5 deep, with Jason Hirsch currently sidelined with shoulder problems, and 1 of Mark Redman, Kip Wells, or Franklin Morales filling the 5th spot. Morales is a highly-touted young fireballer but has been roughed up this spring and at best can only be counted on for about 150IP's this year. Wells and Redman are extremely ugly options for the Rockies, both of whom will have to pitch extremely well to keep their ERA under 5.00.

Of Giants pitchers who could fit into the Rockies rotation, the most sensible option is Kevin Correia. Though Correria pitches to contact – a death wish for most Coors pitchers – Correia's GB/FB ratio is trending in the right direction (1.15 in '07), he relies less heavily than most on breaking balls, and his low-boring fastball, his best pitch, in theory should be little affected by the thin Denver air. True to these notions, Correia has pitched well in Coors over his career. In 26 IP he has a 3.16 ERA, 19 K's, and has surrendered just a single HR.

How Correia and Stewart compare in terms of trade value is very difficult to assess, but if nothing else it should be a good starting point. Depending on the Rockies future plans for Atkins and how serious they are about getting back to the World Series, the Rockies might be very well inclined to give up Stewart in exchange for a quality starter and an additional bullpen arm. It's worth looking into.